Federal Market Research Guide: Find and Win Government Contracts
Master federal market research to identify contract opportunities before competitors. Learn how to use SAM.gov, FPDS, USAspending, and agency forecasts to build a winning pipeline.
Quick Answer
Federal market research is the process of identifying, analyzing, and tracking government contract opportunities before they are formally solicited. By researching agency spending patterns, contract history, and procurement forecasts, you can position your company to win before competitors even know about opportunities.
Why Market Research Matters
In government contracting, the saying goes: "If you're seeing an opportunity for the first time when the RFP is released, you've already lost." Studies show that 60-70% of government contracts are won before the formal solicitation is ever published.
Effective market research allows you to identify opportunities early, understand agency needs, shape requirements, build relationships with decision-makers, and position your company as the obvious choice when the RFP drops.
Market Research Objectives
- Identify Opportunities: Find contracts before they're announced
- Understand Requirements: Learn what agencies actually need
- Know the Competition: Identify incumbents and likely competitors
- Analyze Pricing: Understand historical contract values
- Build Relationships: Connect with program offices early
Key Data Sources
The federal government provides extensive free data on contracts, spending, and upcoming opportunities.
SAM.gov
Official source for contract opportunities, entity registration, and wage determinations.
FPDS.gov
Federal Procurement Data System with historical contract award data.
USAspending.gov
Comprehensive spending data with visualization tools and downloads.
Agency Forecast Sites
Individual agency procurement forecasts and acquisition plans.
Agency OSDBU Sites
Office of Small & Disadvantaged Business Utilization resources.
GovWin/Deltek
Commercial intelligence platforms (subscription required).
Using SAM.gov Effectively
SAM.gov is the primary source for active federal opportunities. Master its search features to find relevant opportunities.
SAM.gov Search Tips
Effective Searches
- • Use NAICS codes to filter by industry
- • Search by PSC codes for specific services
- • Filter by set-aside type
- • Set up saved searches with email alerts
- • Include Sources Sought notices
Key Notice Types
- • Pre-solicitation: Coming soon
- • Sources Sought: Market research phase
- • RFI: Request for Information
- • Solicitation: Active RFP/RFQ
- • Award Notice: Who won
Don't Ignore Sources Sought
Many contractors only search for active solicitations. Sources Sought and RFI notices are goldmines—they reveal upcoming opportunities 6-18 months before the RFP. Respond to these to get on the agency's radar.
FPDS Contract History
FPDS (Federal Procurement Data System) contains historical data on every federal contract. Use it to understand agency spending patterns and identify recompete opportunities.
What FPDS Reveals
- • Current contract holders (incumbents)
- • Contract values and periods
- • Agency spending by NAICS/PSC
- • Set-aside utilization patterns
- • Contract vehicle usage
- • Geographic concentration
Key Research Questions
- • Who is the incumbent contractor?
- • When does the contract expire?
- • What is the contract value?
- • Is it set-aside or full-and-open?
- • Which contract vehicle was used?
- • Are options remaining?
FPDS Research Process
Search by agency + NAICS/PSC code to find relevant contracts
Note contract end dates and remaining options
Research incumbent contractor capabilities and history
Calculate recompete timeline (typically 12-18 months before expiration)
Agency Procurement Forecasts
Many agencies publish procurement forecasts—lists of upcoming contract opportunities. These provide 6-24 months advance notice of opportunities.
Major Agency Forecast Sources
- • DoD Procurement Forecast
- • GSA Federal Acquisition Service Forecast
- • VA Procurement Forecast
- • DHS Procurement Forecast
- • NASA Acquisition Forecast
- • DOE Acquisition Forecast
- • HHS Contract Opportunities
- • DOJ Procurement Forecast
- • Treasury Forecast
- • DOT Procurement Forecast
Forecast Information Includes
- • Opportunity description
- • Estimated value range
- • Anticipated solicitation date
- • NAICS code
- • Set-aside determination
- • Point of contact
Using Forecast Data
- • Add opportunities to your pipeline
- • Contact program office early
- • Attend pre-solicitation meetings
- • Begin teaming partner discussions
- • Start capture planning
Analyzing Opportunities
Not every opportunity is worth pursuing. Use structured analysis to focus on winnable opportunities.
Opportunity Qualification Criteria
Pursue If:
- ✓ Aligns with core capabilities
- ✓ Strong past performance fit
- ✓ Adequate time for capture
- ✓ Competitive pricing possible
- ✓ Relationship with customer exists
- ✓ Teaming options available
Reconsider If:
- ✗ Wired for incumbent
- ✗ No relevant past performance
- ✗ RFP already released (first contact)
- ✗ Cannot meet mandatory requirements
- ✗ Price-to-win unsustainable
- ✗ Resources already committed
Probability of Win (PWin) Factors
Customer Knowledge
How well do you know the agency, program office, and requirements?
Solution Fit
How closely does your solution match stated needs?
Competitive Position
How do you compare to likely competitors?
Past Performance
Do you have relevant, successful contract history?
Price Position
Can you be competitive on price while maintaining margin?
Capture Investment
Have you invested in pre-RFP capture activities?
Building Your Pipeline
Define Your Sweet Spot
Identify 3-5 NAICS codes, target agencies, contract size ranges, and service areas where you compete best.
Set Up Monitoring
Create SAM.gov saved searches, subscribe to agency forecasts, and set up Google Alerts for key terms.
Track Opportunities
Maintain a pipeline tracker with opportunity details, key dates, qualification scores, and next actions.
Qualify Rigorously
Apply go/no-go criteria to each opportunity. Focus resources on winnable pursuits.
Execute Capture
For qualified opportunities, implement formal capture plans with customer engagement, competitive analysis, and solution development.
Pipeline Health Metrics
Frequently Asked Questions
How far in advance should I identify opportunities?
Ideally 12-18 months before the anticipated RFP release. This gives you time to build customer relationships, understand requirements, identify teaming partners, and develop your solution before competitors.
Is it worth responding to RFPs I just discovered?
Generally, no. If you're seeing an opportunity for the first time when the RFP drops, your win probability is typically under 10%. Your resources are better spent on earlier-stage opportunities where you can influence requirements.
Should I pay for commercial intelligence tools?
Free government sources (SAM.gov, FPDS, USAspending) provide extensive data. Commercial tools like GovWin add convenience and analysis features. They're worthwhile if you're pursuing federal contracts seriously and have budget for BD tools.
How do I contact agencies about upcoming opportunities?
Start with the OSDBU office, attend industry days, respond to Sources Sought notices, and request meetings with program offices. Focus on understanding their needs rather than selling—market research is about listening.
What if the incumbent seems unbeatable?
Research the incumbent's performance through CPARS references, talk to agency staff, and look for pain points. No incumbent is truly unbeatable—agencies often want change after long contract periods. Focus on differentiation and innovation.
Streamline Your Market Research
BidFinds aggregates government contract opportunities across federal, state, and local agencies. Stop searching multiple sources—find all opportunities in one place.
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